The scenario of a “slow-motion impeachment”
Prosecutors allege that the president committed fiscal fraud in connection with two government bond deals between 2006 and 2014. It’s the kind of case where a guilty party walks away, and a prosecutor says the act in question “has damaged or caused the impairment of the creditworthiness of the country.” In Brazil, a guilty plea from a reputed insider brings a long sentence (the 1994 Duvalier regime is a prime example), a fact noted in a Washington Post article about what “could” happen. The article said a “slated” prison sentence would be 20 years and would likely be less because of the problems of transferring the case to federal judicial jurisdiction. But Rousseff has also received a flurry of appeals that could drag things out for years.
The result of the impeachment process
If Rousseff were to be impeached by the house, a second vote of votes in the Senate would then be held. This would come after time allowed for appeals. As the Washington Post article noted, it’s hard to predict how things might shake out, because Rousseff could simply throw a coup and assume power. But the sheer length of the process would count against her.
The Brazilian stock market has suffered in recent months. Shares fell 6.84 percent last week, dragging the benchmark Ibovespa index down 1.08 percent.
The biggest punishment of all for many Brazilians
Rousseff would be removed from office for one year. If confirmed in her role as president, she would have to step down for two more years until midterm elections scheduled for the middle of 2018. If Rousseff’s party were to lose its representation in the chamber, she could take on the role of chairman or acting minister.
Brazil’s next president would be Michael Temer, the leader of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party. He was raised by a nomadic family and is a seasoned lawmaker. Temer came to the presidency due to the impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff.